[Posted Dec. 7, 2007]

Survey Suggests Black Voters Will Play Key Role 
In Primary Elections

By Leonard E. Colvin
Chief Reporter
New Journal & Guide
 
       The Joint Center For Political and Economic Studies in Washington, D.C., has released a survey illustrating a very strong level of interest among Blacks in participating in next year’s elections. The process to elect the next president will begin with the Iowa Caucuses on January 3 and the New Hampshire Primary a week later.
       The Joint Center poll says that over 80 percent of the people responding to the survey  said they plan on participating in the upcoming primary in their state.
Senators Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama have strong showings in the poll. Also resolving  the unpopular war in Iraq, health care and  economics  are issues driving Black voter interest as well, according to the survey, conducted during early October.
       The  Joint Center surveyed 750 African Americans who were mostly  likely to vote during the upcoming Presidential Primary elections in their respective states.
       Democrats, as usual, are hoping for improved turnout among Black voters who play a pivotal role in many state and federal primary races, especially where they are 30 percent-plus of the voters.
       Primary season begins January 3rd with the Iowa Caucuses. During Caucuses, voters do not go to the polls, but during the evening hours they gather at homes, tents and  VFW halls to be counted in clusters at small and large gatherings for a particular candidate.

       The first states where African Americans will have a significant impact on the outcome of a primary race  will be January 19 in Nevada and  on January 26 in South Carolina. South Carolina  has one of the highest number of Democratic Party voters:  one of  every two voters may participate in the Democratic primary.
         In Nevada, the county where Las Vegas is located has the largest Black population in the state. That population of Black voters is highly unionized and leans heavily Democratic.

        Florida’s Presidential primary is on  January 29. But the mother of all primary days is February 5th, Super Tuesday, where 21 states will have Democratic or GOP primaries.  Of those 21 states, 11 states have significant Black voting populations which could impact the outcome of those races.  These states include Alabama, Arkansas,  California.  Colorado,  Georgia,  New York and Tennessee.

     
       Senator Obama and Mitt Romney are the first Democratic and Republican candidates respectively to file for a place on the ballot for the February 12th  presidential primary in Virginia.
       According to David Bositus, the chief political analyst at the Joint Center and the author of the poll’s recent findings, Democrats may have a chance to capture Virginia next November.
       “Voters in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads have allowed Virginia to continue to favor Democrats,” he said. “With a presidential race next November and with Mark Warner on the ballot seeking the Senate seat (to replace outgoing Republican John Warner) that will bring out the Democratic voters, especially Blacks, and aid his party in the presidential race.”
       George Bush won the state over John Kerry 53 to 45 in 2004. But that shows a shrinking margin of GOP victory over previous two elections, indicating that if the Democrats can find a candidate who is appealing to the state’s Democratic Party base,  and moderate Republicans, the Party could win it for the first time since Lyndon John in 1964.
       A poll in October indicated that  Clinton had a 24-point lead over Obama  in Virginia, but Bositus says that as the primary nears, the Illinois Senator could close the gap.
So far as the issues which would inspire them to vote during upcoming primaries, 28 percent of the respondents said the war in Iraq was  the “most important” problem in the country, followed by healthcare (20 percent) and jobs and the economy (15 percent). Neither terrorism nor immigration was a high priority for Black Democratic voters this time.
       Blacks in the survey who plan on voting during the upcoming primaries say they are doing better financially, but  81 percent said the nation was going in the wrong direction. They lay the blame at the feet of President George Bush, who got overwhelmingly bad grades for his job performance from Black voters. The U.S Congress did not fare any better than Bush in this survey.
       According to the poll, Black voters will have a strong allegiance  to the Democrats and say the party will do a better job of resolving issues related to the war, healthcare,  economics, immigration and social security, by an average of 70 percent.
       “I think they are missing a great opportunity to look at issues like economic investment, alternatives to incarceration and  other forms of empowerment Black people are thinking about,” said Bill Thomas, a leading Black Republican advocate in Hampton Roads. 
       “There is no outreach. Further, I think with the emergence of the Hispanic community, Blacks are being marginalized by both political parties, not just the Republicans.”

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