[Posted Feb. 27, 2008]

Dem. Candidates Turn To
Texas, Ohio For Showdowns

Leonard E. Colvin
Chief Reporter
New Journal & Guide 
     
      Last year at this time when Senator Barack Obama announced he would run, many asked: “is he black enough” to gain African American support?
      Then, this summer, questions focused on his experience as a policy and decision-maker. Could he match the intellectual and power rating of the “inevitable” candidate Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton?

Senator Barack Obama (left) and Senator Hillary Clinton (right).

      Now that the winter chill has set in during the caucus and primary months, the question is: “Will he have enough money, momentum and staying power to compete with Senator Clinton,  or the GOP candidate during the general election in November?”
      Both candidates would make history: one as the first woman to be the nation’s chief executive; the other as the first African American.
      Twelve months and almost three months later, Senator Barack Obama has not only proven that he is black enough, but has proven to be a skilled orator, organizer, campaigner and has established a position ahead of  Senator Clinton.
      Clarence Page, a national political analyst who works for the Chicago Tribune, said, “once upon a time Blacks asked if  Obama was black enough. Now the question is he too black to attract more of the white voters who have been slowly migrating toward his candidacy.”
      At New Journal and Guide press time, Feb. 27, Senator Clinton had not won a primary or caucus since Super Tuesday, earlier this month. So if she does not do well in the March 4 caucus primaries in Texas and the primary in Ohio, her campaign for the Democratic party nomination may be over or dependent on the votes of the superdelegates.    
  Twenty point leads in polls among voters in those two critical contests in early March have all but evaporated, according to polls conducted by the Washington, Post, CNN and the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, the nation’s leading Black Think Tank, located in Washington, D.C.  Clinton has a  five point lead now in Ohio and is dead even with her rival in Texas.
      David Bositus, the national political analyst for the Joint Center says that although he doubts she could reach such numbers, Clinton must win at least 57 percent of the vote in the remaining 14 primary contests.

    Senator Obama  has managed to siphon off chunks of  the coalition that was Clinton’s base: middle age and older white women, low income women and men, and high income white male Democrats.
      Senator Obama added to his coalition of highly educated white men and women,  African Americans of varying stripes, and a growing number of young colleges age Whites.
      There is more bad news for Clinton when it comes to the black vote. Blacks, according to political scientist and electoral expert Dr. Ronald Walters, “are abandoning the Clintons because they attacked Obama using race. Further, there was a feeling that Blacks owned them their support. They needed us, it was not the other way around.”

      “The black vote for all intensive  purposes has abandoned Hillary Clinton’s campaign,”  Bositus  said.  “In each of the primary races Obama has won, he has garnered over 70 percent of the black vote. The popularity that her husband had among Blacks has not transferred to her. They know her, but not well enough to overlook Obama.”

      Further Obama’s message is attracting independent and some progress white Republicans.
      Obama won handily,  in contests in Hawaii,  Washington and Wisconsin. At press time, he had 1,319 regular delegates, compared to 1,250 for Senator Clinton.
      But even before the results of those three contests were announced, the candidates had moved on to Ohio and Texas. Clinton, meanwhile, was near the border courting Hispanic voters, who seem to be a reliable part of her coalition support.
     Bositus said that Senator Clinton cannot afford to allow Senator Obama to get any more than 35 percent of the Hispanic vote on March 4 in Texas.  In order for her to beat back Obama’s charge in Texas, she must get at least 20 percent of the black voters. But Bositus says the writing may be on the wall and it does not look good for Clinton for the remainder of the primary season.
The Democratic party’s system was established  in 1972 to assure that the selection of the party’s nominee  was not dominated by any given region, state or party bosses. That reform created the 795 superdelegate class, made up of elected officials and party bosses.
They make up 20 percent of the 4,049 delegates who will attend the party’s national convention. It takes  2,025 delegates to get the nomination. If either Clinton or Obama should fall short of that tally at the end of the primary season in early summer, the superdelegates may have a hand in choosing who will carry the party banner against the GOP this fall.
      This is the first time in the four-decade  history of the superdelegates pedigree that they have such a role.
      Clinton now leads in the number of committed superdelegates. But pressure is being brought to bear on those who have pledged their support to either candidate.
      Georgia Congressman John Lewis, long in the Clinton column as a superdelegate, is said to be wavering because Obama won his Congressional district handily. Recently another factor came into play.
      For the first time in nearly a decade, U.S. Congressman Lewis last week picked up opposition to his re-election to Congress.
Markel Hutchins, an Atlanta minister who took up the cause of a 92-year-old woman killed in a botched police raid, announced he would challenge the 11-term congressman and civil rights icon in the Democratic primary.
  "Now is the time for us to move beyond the nostalgia of the civil rights era," said Hutchins. The minister said he met privately with Lewis on Tuesday.
Hutchins, 30, said Lewis' October endorsement of Hillary Clinton in the Democratic presidential race, while the 5th District largely supported Barack Obama, was a factor in his decision to challenge Lewis. "That presented some problems for many of us," Hutchins said.
      “A lot of these superdelegates, like Lewis, did not expect the strength of Senator Obama. They thought she would have the nomination wrapped up by now,” said Dr. Walters.  “So people like John Lewis will  be pressured to remain a Clinton supporter. At the same time, Obama won his district. So a lot of people in that district think his choice as a superdelegate should reflect the  views of the people in the district, not his personal friendship with the New York senator.”
      Bositus says that the superdelegates’ preference is not defined by who won a district they represented, if they did “then why were they created, since the regular delegates would determine the Process.”
      Because he is part of the House of Delegates’ Democratic leadership, Lionell Spruill  has let it be known that although he is a Clinton backer now, March 2 will determine if he will stay committed to her.  While winning the Virginia Primary early this month, Senator Obama won the communities which make up   Delegate Spruill's district.
      “A lot of people are coming at me from a lot of angles,” said Spruill.  “I did not think that Obama would have made much of a difference this time last year.  I am going to wait until March (2) then I will reassess. I think a lot of people want to be on the right side. I still think I am and can just hope for the best next week.”
      “There is suspicion among his  (Obama) supporters, if the delegate count is not clear they, (DNC operatives supporting Clinton)  will try to take it  (the nomination) away from  him by using the superdelegates,” said Dr. Walters. “Or they could use the credentials committee to allow the Florida and Michigan delegates (most of whom voted for Clinton)  to be seated at the convention.  The National Committee has said it would deny the two states’ delegations’ credentials at the national gathering because they held primaries earlier than allowed.
“If this happens, this could destroy the party unity. Blacks and young voters—people who support Obama—could stay home, no matter how important this election is in November.”

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