[Posted Jan. 16, 2008]

Obama, Clinton Prepare
For Showdown In S.C.
 

Leonard E. Colvin
Chief Reporter
New Journal & Guide
 
      Summing up who will win the Democratic or Republican nomination, almost a month into the primary and caucus process, has become complicated.
      North Carolina Sen. John Edwards must win one of the three upcoming primaries to beat standard bearers Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York or Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois.
      The Republican race is even more muddled,  as former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, emerges as a serious contender after winning the Iowa Caucus. Meanwhile, John McCain won the New Hampshire primary. He has temporarily reenergized a campaign deemed dead last August.

Democratic Presidential Candidate Hillary Clinton

      Both party nominations are being hotly contested before the Michigan primary (which will be contested primarily by Republicans). The  Nevada caucuses will be contested only by the Democrats. Then, the Super Tuesday elections on Feb. 5 will see six caucuses and 17 primaries for both parties staged.   
 
The Wilder Factor?
  
      Before Sen. Obama, beat Sen. Clinton by at least 10-13 points Jan. 3 in the Iowa primary, Clinton was deemed the inevitable party winner. Clinton, however, bounced back in New Hampshire the following week on Jan. 8 with a showing over Obama, 39-36.
       Although the first two important contests were held in states with black populations less than 5 percent, Obama has done well attracting Whites of all ages and wages, as has Clinton.
        But during the next three weeks of the primary season,  African Americans will have a greater say on who will be the Democratic nominee. Blacks contribute little to the turnout for the GOP.
      For instance, while they made up less than 5 percent of the voting population in Iowa and New Hampshire,  African Americans make up a sizable share of voters in Nevada (Jan. 19).  Nearly  half of the Democratic primary voters in South Carolina are African American  (Jan. 26) and the front runners in the Democratic party race will seek to attract the most loyal segment of the Democratic party’s base of support.
      Can Obama win over a constituency which should be a base of natural support for him? During his two runs for the White House,  Blacks  gave former President Bill Clinton some of his strongest support. 

Will that support transfer to his wife?
      Maryland and Virginia, two states with sizable black Democratic voters will hold primaries on February 12. In South Carolina, media reports and some polls show black voters are torn between Clinton and Obama in South Carolina, where history could be made if either the first woman or African American is elected to the presidency. 
      While Obama has avoided injecting any  hint  of “racial politics” into the race, to avoid turning off white voters, nationally, the media has reported that the Clinton camp has been doing so to weaken Obama’s standing among Whites and undecided black voters. The list of racially charged slits was included in a memo released to the media, from a still unknown source late last week, according to the Washington Post.
      For instance, prior to the Iowa caucuses, the Clinton campaign pointed to his use of illicit drugs in college, a fact he admitted in a book he published early last year.
      New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo said that  Obama would have to do better in press conferences than ‘shuck and jive’ if he hoped to win the nomination.
      Moreover, Bill Clinton called Obama’s campaign a “fairy tale.” Clinton said he was referring to Obama’s  vote to fund the war after he arrived in the Senate in 2004, when he said he initially opposed the conflict.
     Then there is the Jan. 11 statement by Mrs. Clinton. She said teamwork between Whites and Blacks led to civil rights legislation. She said her statement was being misinterpreted  and exploited by the Obama operation.
                  
The GOP Shuffle
 
      Ex-Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney  has come in second in the first caucus and primary. He hopes he can reclaim some standing in Michigan, where he grew up and where his father was a three-term governor. If he loses in that state his chances of winning, despite spending millions of his personal fortune will be over.
      Former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, has not placed well in any of the first races. He is betting all of his political  fortunes on winning the Florida primary  on Jan. 29 and going on to win the GOP nomination.
      While  former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee has managed to rise to the  top of the pack, based on his support from Christian evangelicals,  the Republican party bosses are trying to cut his political throat. Huckabee’s populist economics hint at healthcare reform and slaps at Wall Streeters, as he tries to woo low-income white voters.

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