[Posted Jan. 9, 2008]

Guess What? Obama Can Win

By Ron Walters

NNPA Columnist

    It’s nothing short of phenomenal. A new Zogby poll has found that Barack Obama beats all of the Republican candidates in the race by a greater margin than anyone else on the Democratic side. Now those folks who have considered him unelectable or who have, like myself, questioned whether he could be elected, will have to take a second look.
    Most of the hesitancy about Obama being elected has focused on his lack of experience and some, like Andy Young, have said that he may be ready in 2012, cover for a Hillary vote. But this is wishful thinking because you can’t manufacture a candidacy to fit the time and place you want. For all that Rev. Al Sharpton and Ambassador Carol Moseley Braun promised, it just wasn’t their time in 2004.

    This is Obama’s time not because he is telegenic and promises a new day, but he is otherwise qualified and represents a new direction on the war, not on race relations. If there were no War in Iraq, there would be no Barack Obama, he is not challenging White to make racial change. Americans are thirsting for a change with respect to the war and he promises it most. So, who knows whether the conditions in 2012 would favor his candidacy. What we know is that he is there now and what the numbers are telling us is that he could win.
I agree with Rep. Jim Clyburn that “if Obama wins Iowa, he will run away with South Carolina.”

  Why? There is this deep-seated thing among Black people, born of their experience with American racism, which informs them that it is unlikely that Whites will support a Black man for president at the end of the day. I feel this too, how can you deny your experiences.  

   But I also know that when it looks like the stars are lining up in your favor, the dumbest thing to do is something that will upset your ability to utilize them. That is where we are with Obama, the stars are lining up and forcing Blacks and everyone else in America who would not vote for a Black man to make a choice.
    In this, I also agree with my “evil twin” Ron Daniels: when you line up Barack and Hillary—Barack is better for Black folks, so do you vote for your true choice or the tactical choice of someone you think may be less better than Barack, but who can get through the door of the White House.
    This is a classic choice for Blacks. I call it the “structure of choice” in American politics that most of the time finds that Blacks have to support someone for president who is much less than they would want in terms of either personality or their stand on the issues. Barack isn’t the perfect choice either, but he is so far better than Hillary that to vote for anyone else would to dissipate black political power. For us, this choice is as good as it’s going to get.
    I have been concerned about the pure democracy that many want to exercise in this vote, so much they have taken their eye off the prize. Blacks can decide who the Democratic nominee of the party will be if they vote in large numbers for a single candidate.
   This is the gift that the Civil Rights movement has given us, the person, the moment and the causes, but we don’t have a strategy. Should we turn away from this historical commitment for “tactical reasons”—much of which is based either on fear or personal aggrandizement—or do what is right? If you want a Black president of the United States and you get someone in this position and don’t support them, you will never get one.

   Dr. Ron Walters is the Distinguished Leadership Scholar, Director of the African American Leadership Center and Professor of Government and Politics at the University of Maryland College Park. His latest book is: Freedom Is Not Enough: Black Voters, Black Candidates and American Presidential Politics (Rowman and Littlefield.)

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